{"id":5290,"date":"2020-02-24T17:10:37","date_gmt":"2020-02-24T23:10:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/?p=5290"},"modified":"2026-04-07T11:18:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T16:18:13","slug":"will-the-coronavirus-crash-the-stock-market-history-says-probably-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/will-the-coronavirus-crash-the-stock-market-history-says-probably-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Coronavirus Crash the Stock Market? History Says Probably Not"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Pundits all over the media think the coronavirus could crash the market.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-image-5296\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Coronavirus-blog.steveblais-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Coronavirus stock market fear\" class=\"wp-image-5296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Coronavirus-blog.steveblais-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Coronavirus-blog.steveblais-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Coronavirus-blog.steveblais-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Coronavirus-blog.steveblais.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"> Medical staff in Wuhan hospital during the coronavirus outbreak\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>On Friday, January 17th, after a spectacular 40% run-up that started the day after Christmas 2018, the Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s 500-Stock Index closed at 3,329.62.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Five weeks and one day later, on Monday, February 24, the Index closed a little over 3% lower at 3,225.52.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am always amused by the media&#8217;s use of the word &#8220;lost.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p>We have been invited by financial media to suspect that the blended value of 500 of the largest, best-financed, most profitable businesses in America and the world has permanently \u201clost\u201d (which is what a loss is) three percent, with more \u201closses\u201d to come due to the outbreak in China of a new strain of coronavirus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Permit me to doubt this, and to suggest that you, as a goal-focused long-term wealth builder, join me in doubting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I do not claim to have any idea how far this outbreak will spread or how many lives it will claim before it is brought under control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m reasonably certain that many (or perhaps most) of the world\u2019s leading virologists and epidemiologists are working on it, and I believe that their efforts will ultimately succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Clearly, this is nothing more than my personal opinion.&nbsp; But if the rich history of similar outbreaks in this century is any guide, this would seem to be a reasonable hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I draw your attention to. . .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SARS in 2003-04, also originating in China<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bird flu epidemic in 2005-2006<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In 2009, a new strain of swine flu<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Ebola outbreak in the autumn of 2014<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The mosquito-borne Zika virus outbreak in 2016-17<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Without belaboring the point, the super-spreader of SARS \u2013 a fish seller \u2013 checked into a hospital in Guangzhou on January 31, 2003, basically infecting the whole staff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The epidemic exploded from there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On that first day of the litany of epidemics cited above, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 855.70.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seventeen years and six epidemics later, the Index closed over three times higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m confident that you see where I\u2019m going with this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/stock-market-panic-how-to-channel-chaos-into-a-rich-future\/\">Corrections<\/a> are quite common<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>No one can forecast them, much less time them<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They are irrelevant to your long-term goals<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Daily declines have always been a part of the long-term up in the S&amp;P 500, even when the daily declines pile up in nasty three-year segments like 2000-2002 or a one-year segment like 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Your stock portfolio is not an index that just goes up or down every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is a portfolio of companies with earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2019 earnings of the S&amp;P 500 have risen to $162.35 from $83.77 in 2010, almost doubling over the past 10 years.\u00a0 The 2019 cash dividend has more than doubled over the past 10 years, from $22.65 in 2010 to $58.80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No virus or <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/download-the-best-option-for-most-money-decisions\/\">market correction<\/a> in the past has slowed these earnings down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do you really think any will do so in the future?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stories like this are part of the reflections I write about life, resilience, and human turning points explored on my <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.steveblaising.com\/content\/about-stephen-blaising\/\">About Stephen Blaising<\/a><\/strong> page.<\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pundits all over the media think the coronavirus could crash the market. On Friday, January 17th, after a spectacular 40% run-up that started the day after Christmas 2018, the Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s 500-Stock Index closed at 3,329.62. Five weeks and one day later, on Monday, February 24, the Index closed a little over 3% lower [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"cos_headline_score":0,"cos_seo_score":0,"cos_headline_text":"Will the Coronavirus Crash the Stock Market? 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